Estimates of the July 1, 2010 permanent resident population
of each of
The foundations for the 2010 county estimates were the April 1, 2010 county
population counts from the 2010 Census. This year's county
estimates were modified for the short time period between the April 1 count and the July 1 estimate.
The method is discussed in detail in the Demographics Unit's Internet site in Methodology under "Certified 2010", under
"
These municipal population estimates were developed from federal 2010 Census counts released in 2011. They also include several specific changes based on group quarter's population verified wrongly assigned or missed in Census 2010 - a misallocated prison for Tabor City, a missed prison in Troy and a missed nursing home in Falcon.
ESTIMATING POPULATIONS FOR 2010
First, for each county, a set of 2010 non-group quarters population estimates was produced. Then, the set of initial estimates for each county was controlled to the 2010 non-group quarters population estimate for that county. Finally, a July 1, 2010 group quarters population count was added to each estimate to produce the total population estimate for 2010.
Because of the short time period (April-July 2010) this year's estimates were produced with a simplified estimates model (Method 1 only). The full model will be used again beginning with the July 1, 2011 estimate series.
METHOD II. PARTITIONED CHANGE. - not used for the 2010 estimates. This method assumes that areas more recently incorporated into the city limits of a municipality may grow at different rates from that of the core city. The non-institutional population of a municipality is divided into three geographical areas: the 2000 core city (areas enclosed by the April 2000 corporate limits), the suburbs (all areas annexed between April 2000 and April 2010), and newly annexed areas (areas annexed after January 1, 2010). The core city is assumed to grow from April 1, 2010 at a rate that is a function of its 2000 to 2010 growth rate. The suburban area is grown from April 2010 at a rate which is a function of the growth rate of the core city, the growth rate of the less urban part of the county (the county minus all of its core cities), the density of the suburban area, the density of the core city, and the density of the less urban part of the county. Each newly annexed area is grown from its count date to the estimate date at a rate which is a function of the growth rate of the 2010 city (the core city plus the suburban area), the growth rate of the less urban part of the county, the density of the annexed area, the density of the 2010 city, and the density of the less urban part of the county.
METHOD III. CHANGES IN HOUSING UNIT SHARES. - not used for the 2010 estimates. This method assumes that
the municipal share of the county non-group quarters population within the 2010
Census bounds of the municipality grows, from 2010 to the estimate date, at the same rate as
the municipal share of the total number of county housing units. Housing unit
growth is based on housing unit totals for April 2010 and the estimate date from the
Population Division of the U. S. Bureau of the Census, with adjustments by this
office to remove units in areas annexed since April 2010, and from data submitted directly from the
municipalities via an annual survey. These Bureau housing
totals are partially based on building permit data for which the Census Bureau
surveys the building permit issuing local governments of
In early August of 2010, a special census was
conducted by one municipality for an area with less than 500 population.
This was the municipality of Raynham in
DATA USER NOTE
The 2009 municipal estimates released last year have not been updated and should not be compared with these estimates. To obtain the best estimates of population change over time, one should compare these estimates only with the 1990, 2000 and the current 2010 Census counts.
(...go to Municipal Estimates Home Page)
Last Update: October 4, 2011.